Who will win the World Cup?
CircleZeroEight’s model simulates the whole tournament 40,000 times from each nation’s strength. Right now it makes Argentina the favourite.
Still Argentina — but its odds have firmed from 25.8% to 26.3% since day one.
You vs the model
The model has its opinion. Now back yours — and watch the gap between what fans want and what the maths says.
The machine has run the numbers. What does your gut say? Make your call and we’ll show you how the crowd compares — and where fans and the model most disagree.
Call the groups too (optional) +
Title odds
Every nation, ranked by how often it lifts the trophy across the simulations.
- 1JArgentina26.3%
- 2IFrance20.9%
- 3HSpain17.5%
- 4CBrazil9.7%
- 5LEngland7.8%
- 6KPortugal5.2%
- 7FNetherlands4.2%
- 8EGermany2.5%
- 9GBelgium1.4%
- 10LCroatia1.2%
- 11KColombia0.6%
- 12HUruguay0.5%
- 13CMorocco0.3%
- 14DUnited Stateshost0.3%
- 15AMexicohost0.3%
- 16BSwitzerland0.2%
- 17INorway0.2%
- 18ISenegal0.1%
- 19FJapan0.1%
- 20BCanadahost0.1%
- 21DTürkiye0.1%
- 22EEcuador0.1%
- 23GIran<0.1%
- 24ASouth Korea<0.1%
- 25GEgypt<0.1%
- 26FSweden<0.1%
- 27ACzechia<0.1%
- 28JAustria<0.1%
- 29EIvory Coast<0.1%
- 30CScotland<0.1%
- 31BBosnia & Herzegovina<0.1%
- 32DAustralia<0.1%
- 33DParaguay<0.1%
- 34FTunisia<0.1%
- 35JAlgeria<0.1%
- 36LGhana<0.1%
- 37KDR Congo<0.1%
- 38BQatar<0.1%
- 39HSaudi Arabia<0.1%
- 40ASouth Africa0%
- 41LPanama0%
- 42KUzbekistan0%
- 43IIraq0%
- 44JJordan0%
- 45HCape Verde0%
- 46ECuraçao0%
- 47CHaiti0%
- 48GNew Zealand0%
Who wins each group
Projected group winners across the twelve groups. Top two qualify, plus the eight best third-placed teams.
Group A
win group- Mexico45%
- South Korea25%
- Czechia21%
- South Africa9%
Group B
win group- Switzerland41%
- Canada37%
- Bosnia & Herzegovina13%
- Qatar9%
Group C
win group- Brazil79%
- Morocco17%
- Scotland4%
- Haiti0%
Group D
win group- United States43%
- Türkiye30%
- Australia14%
- Paraguay13%
Group E
win group- Germany70%
- Ecuador18%
- Ivory Coast12%
- Curaçao1%
Group F
win group- Netherlands71%
- Japan16%
- Sweden10%
- Tunisia4%
Group G
win group- Belgium61%
- Iran21%
- Egypt17%
- New Zealand1%
Group H
win group- Spain83%
- Uruguay15%
- Saudi Arabia1%
- Cape Verde0%
Group I
win group- France84%
- Senegal8%
- Norway7%
- Iraq1%
Group J
win group- Argentina93%
- Austria4%
- Algeria3%
- Jordan1%
Group K
win group- Portugal68%
- Colombia27%
- DR Congo3%
- Uzbekistan2%
Group L
win group- England67%
- Croatia28%
- Ghana2%
- Panama2%
Projected knockout bracket
A representative bracket — the modal group outcomes, then the favourite at each tie. Not a claim every favourite advances.
Show the workings
The model is deliberately transparent: a clear core rating, with every signal's contribution on the table — and its data coverage shown, never hidden.